Wagering on baseball
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With a complex game like baseball, it is imperative to be as informed as possible in all aspects of the game. Be sure to log on daily to keep up to date with all of the latest baseball stats, trends and tips.
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ALCS Game 4 Betting Odds and Preview2010-10-19
Sportsbook.com betting odds: New York -153, Texas +143 Total: 9.5
After being shut down by Cliff Lee on Monday, the Yankees rest their Game 4 hopes on the shoulders of A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA). Tommy Hunter will get the start for Texas (13-4, 3.73 ERA). So far the baseball betting public at Sportsbook.com is split as 51% of the money is on the Yankees.
Burnett’s disappointing season has been well documented. The right-hander has struggled with his control for the better part of the 2010 season and was left out of the ALDS rotation. As a result, Burnett hasn’t pitched since October 2. His last three starts of the regular season were ones to forget, as he went 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA.
The Yankees have lost five of Burnett’s past six starts and went 13-20 (.394) in games he started this year. He’s pitched fairly well in his career against Texas, going 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA in 11 starts. In 2010, he went 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against the Rangers.
Hunter comes into the matchup after taking the loss in Game 4 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay. He went four innings and allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits while striking out seven. Hunter started the season on fire, winning his first nine decisions before finishing out 4-4. Texas has dropped three of his last four starts. Hunter faced the Yankees only once this year, a September 11 matchup against Burnett in Arlington. Hunter gave up two runs over five innings as the Rangers prevailed 7-6.
This MLB betting trend found at Sportsbook.com points towards the Yankees as being the value bet.
Play Against - Road teams (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (72-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*).
With the most generous baseball dime lines in the business, it is no wonder everyone bets on baseball at Sportsbook.com.
MLB: Betting System shows Tampa Bay breaking cold stretch
2010-05-27
It was bound to happen; Tampa Bay (32-15, +9.2 units) is officially in their first slump of the year, having been swept at home by Boston in three games. The Rays’ “Sox” homestand continues and they will look for much better outcomes against the team from Chicago. In the first of the 4-game set on Thursday, Tampa plays as a -177 favorite according to Sportsbook.com, and is backed by a powerful betting system.
The Rays offense has been the culprit of their failures, touching home plate just four times against the Red Sox and have scored more than four runs only once in their last six tries.
Tampa Bay has fallen to third in the American League in runs scored in part because their team batting average is now seventh (.256), with players like B.J. Upton slumping (batting .146 in his last 23 games).
Starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (4-0, 2.54 ERA) would certainly appreciate an offensive lift since he has yet to register a win at Tropicana Field this season despite 2.95 ERA in his four starts. Though Tampa Bay has scored 19 runs in Niemann’s starting assignments at the Trop, 14 of those runs have come after he’s been taken out of the game, giving him no decisions. At least the Rays bullpen continues to excel with 3.41 ERA and 82.4 percent save percentage.
Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox (20-26, -9.6 units) wish they had the kind of problems Tampa Bay has. Guillen’s club has not hit all season as evidenced by .240 batting average (13th) and ranking 10th in the AL in runs scored (4.2) and on-base percentage (.316).
Guillen might be a little testy coming into this four-game series having been tossed from yesterday’s win in Cleveland. The Sox skipper is also tired of witnessing tonight starting pitcher Gavin Floyd (2-4, 6.31) not pitching up to capabilities.
“He is not a kid anymore (referring to Floyd), he’s not a guy we need to teach or be careful what he is going to do, how many pitches he’s going to throw,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. He has stuff to win 20 games; it’s about making him believe that.”
Floyd does have good numbers in a couple areas with a better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (43-19) and has only been taken deep four times in nine starts. His downfall has been a combination of leaving the ball up in the zone and catching too much of the plate, being tagged for 66 hits in 51 1/3 innings.
The Rays opened as -165 money line favorites and the morning line has them up to -177 at Sportsbook.com. Has the word on this superb system gotten out?
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, with a mediocre AL team batting average of .260 or less, against a club with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), whose starting pitcher gives up one home run or less every other start.
Betting against teams like the Pale Hose in this spot has been profitable with 43-9, 82.7 percent record the previous five seasons. Tampa Bay usually responds well to poor pitching performances like yesterday with 13-2 mark in home games after allowing nine runs or more over the last three seasons.
Rays’ pitcher Niemann has enjoyed excellent success against below average competition and is 18-4 pitching against a team with a losing record since last year. (Rays Record)
For the skeptical sports betting participant, this should be the knockout punch –Manager Joe Maddon’s squad is 18-0 at home after scoring four runs or less three straight games since 2008.
MLB: One more in Minnesota ought to do it
2009-10-06
What is the deal with baseball teams not being able to determine a winner after playing 162 games? In the entire history of Major League Baseball, there has only been eight previous one game playoffs to determine a division or league winner, however this will be the third in three years when Detroit travels to Minnesota. The Twins, who’ve rallied furiously over the last few weeks to catch the Tigers, are a heavy -165 favorite, but the betting action has been split fairly evenly thus far at Sportsbook.com.
This is turning out to be quite a 24-hour period at the Metrodome, with Brett Favre facing his old team and Vikings fans in full throat going up against the North Division rival the Green Bay Packers. This is followed up on Tuesday with AL Central rivals Detroit and the Twins having to settle their differences in the diamond.
The Twins and Tigers finished with identical 86-76 records; however there is no doubt who has the momentum. Minnesota closed the season 16-4, which included four victories over Detroit to force a second straight 163rd game. Besides playing exceptional baseball, the Twins will have the home field advantage, which is as intimidating a place in baseball when the place is packed. Officials in Minnesota decided to pull back the upper-deck outfield curtain to expand seating to more than 50,000 fans for the game. Tickets sold out within minutes. The Twins are 48-33 on their home field this season
"Every pitch," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said, "will be a roar."
The Tigers could use a roar of their own, winning four times in last 10 games to find themselves in this predicament. Subtract the 12-5 win over Chicago on Sept. 26 and the Detroit offensive has tallied 3.1 runs per game to finish the season. From a matchup standpoint, not many strong points for the Tigers to rally around with 7-11 record vs. Minnesota this season (the reason the game is in Minneapolis), including a 2-7 record when playing under the roof.
Playing in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and 50,000 screaming Twins fans is part of the reason the Tigers finished 35-46 on the road this year. Manager Leyland is hoping the bats wake up, with his club is 24-11 having lost three of their last four games this season.
What a spot for a rookie pitcher, which is what Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.40 ERA) faces. Porcello closed strong with a 2-1 record, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four starts. The down side for the right-hander is 0-2 mark, with a 6.30 ERA in two starts at the Metrodome.
Sportsbook.com has Minny as -165 money line favorites with total Un8.5. Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36) has the assignment for Ron Gardenhire and likes the setup. “There's no way to go around the fact that we're playing in the Dome and not in Detroit," said Twins right-hander. "I think we've seen in the past how well we play in front of our fans and how much it can affect the outcome of the game. We're all very excited to be here at the Dome."
Minnesota is 24-7 in home games with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games and they are 24-7 when Baker starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.
For totals players, the side might be an indication of how to bet the total. The Twinkies are 14-5 OVER at home with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. Detroit on the other hand is 16-6 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175 in 2009.
Don’t look to history to leave many clues, with the home team 4-4 in play-in games. First pitch is 5:07 Eastern on TBS and possibly the winner is told by the line. Detroit is 30-59 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons and Minnesota is 76-40 as a home favorite of -110 or higher in the same time span.
The winner gets the Yankees in New York on Wednesday to start ALDS.
StatFox Power Line – Minnesota -139
MLB: Betting Quality Pitchers after bad outing
2009-07-21
We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?
The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.
A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.
Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.
In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.
When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.
How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.
Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.
In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.
When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement. Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.
MLB: Tampa Bay tries to get up after being flattened
2009-05-26
It will be a Memorial Day the Tampa Bay Rays won’t soon forget, for almost all the wrong reasons. The day had begun nice and quiet enough with manager Joe Maddon being given a three-year contract extension and the team itself was feeling pretty good about itself as had they won seven of 10 and starting to resemble the club that won the AL East last season. That all changed quickly though, and now the Rays must attempt to get back up off the mat when they face the Indians again on Tuesday night. Get the latest line on tonight’s contest on the LIVE ODDS page.
Though Tampa Bay had lost 13 games in a row at Cleveland, they were starting their prized possession from the minor leagues, David Price. The Indians had done little right this season in losing 28 of first 45 games and were ready to be had again after the Rays had built a 10-0 lead thru four at bats.
The first sign of trouble for Tampa Bay actually occurred the day prior, as second baseman Akinori Iwamura will miss the rest of the season with a torn ligament in his left knee, trying to turn double play.
Price must have been too fired up or something else, but he lasted just an 3 1/3 innings, throwing 100 pitches, allowing fours hits, two runs, along with six strike-outs and five walks.
The Rays bullpen, which has not been nearly as successful at last season, gave up a couple more runs, still, the bottom of the ninth started with Tampa Bay holding 10-4 lead. Faster then you could say Devil Rays, Cleveland started hitting the ball hard and received more free passes than a group going to a Taylor Hicks show. New closer Jason Isringhausen walked three batters in a row and gave up solid single to Victor Martinez, who drove in runs six and seven to cap the rally and provide winning margin of improbable 11-10 triumph.
Professional athletes are trained to let yesterday go and focus on next game, but it’s not often you blow 10-run leads, including six-run gaps with three outs to go. That left the Rays at 23-24 (-5 units) and they are 10-25 after four or more consecutive Overs. Matt Garza (4-2, 3.41, ERA, 1.154 WHIP) will be the starting pitcher in charge of trying to turnaround Rays’ fortunes. The right-hander has had as much success in Cleveland as his team, with 0-3 record and 6.12 ERA in his previous five starts near Lake Erie.
Sportsbook.com has Tampa Bay as -120 money line favorites and Garza and Tampa is 2-9 as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. In fact, the Rays are 4-13 as visitors when the money line is +125 to -125 in 2009.
Cleveland (18-28, -11.1) hopes its good fortune will continue, since they need a winning streak to match success against Tampa Bay to get over .500. Carl Pavano (4-4, 6.10, 1.500) will be entrusted with trying to keep streak alive and has pitched better of late winning four of last five. Though Pavano allows a lot of hits ( 62 in 48 and 2/3 innings), he’s minimized damage giving up more than two walks once in last eight starts and just three home runs in same time frame. The right-hander has been about what you could hope for as fifth starter.
The Indians have not enjoyed any success after big offensive output, with 0-11 mark after scoring eight or more runs and are 1-10 after 15 or more total runs were scored.
This American League contest will be televised in local markets starting at 7:05 Eastern, with the Tribe seeking 15th consecutive win over Rays, despite 12-24 record against RH starters this year.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -183
MLB: Betting on CFB Teams Seeking Respect
2008-09-17
ESPN2 offers up a special Wednesday night college football contest for those bettors suffering from withdrawal since no games were played on Tuesday. The matchup pits Kansas State and Louisville, with both teams looking to get back into the spotlight they each enjoyed not long ago. The Wildcats are a 4-point favorite and backed by 85% of the players at Sportsbook.com at last check.
Louisville’s fall from the elite teams in the country has taken place faster than the receding hairlines of the members of Metallica. The Cardinals were abysmal in losing at home to Kentucky 27-2, gaining all of 205 yards of total offense, while committing five turnovers. What caused a great deal of disillusionment was the play of senior quarterback Hunter Cantwell, who may have NFL-caliber arm, but made poor decisions and hangs on to the ball too long. The receiving corps were almost no help with more drops than a one pound bag of organic candy drops.
Louisville took out its frustration on Tennessee Tech 51-10, which helps bring back a small amount of confidence, yet could hardly be considered a make-good outing. For head coach Steve Kragthorpe, this will be the first of three consecutive televised weekday games to help show potential recruits Louisville is still a good place to come play football. Last year’s 6-6 season was a real bust for the former Tulsa head man and those that attend games at Papa John Cardinal Stadium have come to expect their team to play piping hot.
Louisville is 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons and will need complete effort being four-point home underdogs as noted at Sportsbook.com with total at 55.5. This is the first time the Cardinals are a home underdog since 2002, when they upset then #4 Florida State 26-20 in overtime in the rain as two touchdown underdogs.
Kansas State’s athletic department showed the courage of the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz, in dumping Fresno State to face take on the always fierce Montana State Bobcats, whom they just squeezed by 69-10. According to K-State players these types of games help. "It's just a different team, and the mindset is completely different," said defensive end Ian Campbell, a senior co-captain. "There is no loss right now, just the two games that we won. We've gotten the ability to get guys out there and build some depth." This contest will be the only legitimate opponent the Wildcats will take on before Big 12 action commences.
After losing last four games of the season to fall from bowl contention, this is big year for third year coach Ron Prince to prove his squad is on the right track. Josh Freeman has shown most consistency in his junior season under center and will have first real test to prove he is force in a quarterback-heavy conference loaded with experience. Kansas State is 28-14 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more dating back to the early years of Bill Snyder era.
This is a proving ground test for both teams. Third place or higher appears to be wide open in the Big East for Louisville and Kansas State thinks they have enough offensive to slide behind Missouri in the Big 12 North. The Wildcats are only 7-19 ATS in initial road game of the season, the ‘Ville is 2-9 ATS versus teams for the Big 12.
Louisville won only previous encounter between these schools in 2006 at Manhattan 24-6, as 14-point favorites, with Hunter Cantwell subbing for injured Jeff Brohm. ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 8 Eastern, with Big East teams just 1-14 ATS to start 2008.
StatFox Forecaster – Louisville covers